„The mitigation of future risks cannot be postponed or avoided. This is why any insight into the future is our best insurance plan. As the saying goes: „prevention is better than cure“. It is our responsibility to take all measures possible upfront to ensure we increase our resilience over the years for an improved cybersecurity landscape in 2030 and beyond.”
(Quelle: https://www.enisa.europa.eu/news/cybersecurity-threats-fast-forward-2030)
ENISA (The European Union Agency for Cybersecurity) has identified the ten biggest threats to cybersecurity through 2030 using various methods.
- Supply chain vulnerability due to software dependencies
- Advanced disinformation campaigns
- Increase in the authoritarian nature of digital surveillance/loss of privacy
- Human error and exploited legacy systems in cyber-physical ecosystems
- Targeted attacks amplified by data from smart devices
- Lack of analysis and control of space-based infrastructure and objects
- Emergence of advanced hybrid threats
- Shortage of skilled workers
- Cross-border ICT service providers as a single point of failure
- Misuse of artificial intelligence
The research keeps us mindful that the threats in the future will still be similar to what we face today, but with even more immense diversity. In addition, however, we will be even more dependent on technology, making the issue even more important and complex.Looking into the future is an important tool to assess how threats are likely to evolve and what direction to take.One of the methods, the PESTLE analysis helps to accurately classify and localize the problems. Political, economic, social and technological factors are included.
Another is the Threatcasting method, based on identification of threats is used, based on traditional future studies and military strategic. The analysis also includes the future meaning of techniques like:1. blockchain, deepfakes, and cybercrime in a data-rich environment;2. green, sustainable, and connected smart cities;3. more data – less control;4. sustainable energy, automated/short-term workforce;5. legislation, bias, extinction and global threats.
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